In the excitement of yesterday's news of our healthy baby, I have found a little wacky mathematical phonomena that we have on the Cronley side of the family. This baby, when born, will represent the 11th grandchild for "Grandma Cronley" or "Grandma Tronley" if you prefer. She will also represent the 8th granddaughter. As a numbers guy, this amazes me.If we can agree the the probability of having either a son or a daughter is equal at 50%, then the following numbers may surprise you as well. Or if you are anything like Tracey, you will have already gone to CNN.com to avoid math, especially statistics.
For 11 separate births, or events, there are two possible outcomes per event (girl or boy). This gives us a total of 2,048 different possible outcomes (See photo. It shows the first couple events and shows how the possibilities start increasing). Of those outcomes, only 11.3% of them are for either 3 or less girls or, like in our case, 3 boys. That's crazy! If we were gambling based on these numbers, the house would be broke...which sort of explains things, I guess.
To be clear, the next child (following ours) has a 50% chance of being the 9th granddaughter, which is consistent with the norm. However, as the numbers show, our family is anything but the norm and no one will argue with that.
1 comment:
I vaguely remember learning this stuff in high school biology and stats. Of course, you make it so personal - our family definitely breaks the norms! Thanks for the laughs. Brigid
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